In 2019, there was a rebound in new oil tanker orders, with VLCC and medium range oil tankers being the most prominent. However, whether this trend can continue will depend on multiple factors. In the New Market Weekly, ship broker Gibson pointed out that tanker booking activities were quite active in 2019, with VLCC and medium range tankers once again favored by the market. So far, at least 12 VLCCs and 11 medium range oil tankers have signed contract orders. In 2018, these two types of ships were also popular, receiving 42 and 19 orders respectively. The current question is whether the busy scene at the beginning of 2019 was just a temporary change or a prelude to the sustained growth of tanker orders?

According to Gibson's analysis, investment decisions will be influenced by multiple factors, such as fleet renewal plans, regulatory developments, and speculative investments based on future demand forecasts. Other factors such as price and shipyard capacity also have an impact. It is difficult to determine shipbuilding capacity accurately because different ship types have varying complexities and occupy different capacities at different times. But we can infer some conclusions from the known situation. From the overall historical data, the number of new ship orders in 2018 has declined, which is not as good as the recovery from 2013 to 2015 and the prosperity from 2006 to 2008. This indicates that there is sufficient shipbuilding capacity in the market, and there is still more room for growth in new ship orders in 2019.

The following figure shows the spot rates for crude oil tankers: